A further CO2 increase as much as a doubling of today’s concentration can at most cause a temperature increase of 0.8°C. We now have approx. ca. 400 ppm CO2 and the main temperature effect of CO2 took place already at 20 ppm. The reason is that the CO2 molecules shield each other and therefore the energy absorption – cause of a possible heating up – can only increase exponentially (e to the power of minus c(CO2); c= concentration). That is not speculation or a model but very hard and measured physics.
The climate modellers have said defiantly on this piece of knowledge, that confuses them, that the low temperature increase leads then to more water being dissolved in the atmosphere than gas which has an effect on temperature. (Clouds are not a gas, they contribute to cooling and are taken account of in the climate models only insufficiently.)
In fact, water in gaseous form is the main greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and contributes approx. 80 – 90 % of the greenhouse effect. Without this water it would be very cold here!
However, there is nothing to indicate that the concentration of gaseous water in the atmosphere has increased in the last 80 years.
The first question of whether a warming is taking place is relatively easy to answer: It is getting warmer. The second much more difficult question; which is quite separate, (journalists keep confusing these!) is whether the actually observed warming (which I appreciate by the way) is natural or a by-product of industrialisation (“man-made”).
However we do know that the insolation can vary up to 30%. The Roman Empire ended because, among other causes, the climate became cooler and the people from the north fleeing from bad harvests forced their way into the Roman area: “Mass migration”.
Around 1000 (without industrialisation) it was noticeably warmer in Europe than today: South Greenland was farmland with numerous farmsteads. Wine was cultivated in Oslo. The 500 metre-long wine cellars in the Saale-Unstrut area (Nietzsche Town Naumburg!) go back from this time. The Alps were free of glaciers.
The world did not end or decline in this warm period. On the contrary: Europe’s culture blossomed.
Generally, seen in economic terms, cold periods are a great problem: The harvests, as a basis for the economy, fail due to cold, and people starve. On the other hand, in warm times irrigation is needed, but the food supply is assured.
The cold period came again to Europe about 1200. The Venetian lagoon was frozen solid and when the ice was thick enough tournaments could be held on the Canal grande. Even the plagues should be seen in connection with these conditions.
The cold period with really severe winters ended before 1800. In Goethe’s time there was a climate like we have today.
Around 1850 there was again a cold spell with failed harvests and famine. A case in point is the emigration from Ireland to America. That was the last time that the Niagara Falls froze over completely.
Since the time of the minimum, the temperature has been measured and recorded regularly.
This natural temperature increase is continuing, but it has not yet achieved the cosy level of the year 1000. None the less, the melting glaciers in the Alps have uncovered the forests that they had buried after 1200.
The gist coming from the obviously uneducated (or corrupt?) journalists: “Yet again the highest temperature has been measured since records began!”
There is evidence that the insolation follows not only the well-known 11-year cycle of sunspots, but also a 200-year cycle. This would indicate that the next cold extremity would be around the year 2050. (The number of sunspots is a good indicator for the intensity of the insolation: 50 years ago it was still thought that sunspots would shield and that less energy would arrive on earth when there were a lot of sunspots. But it is exactly the other way around. As boiling water forms bubbles and so we know that the water has reached 100°C sunspots indicate higher temperature on the sun – and therefore higher insolation.)
Conclusion: I believe that the climate hysteria is being stoked by circles with their own agendas.
The holy, autistic Greta Dummberg [“Dumb berg”] is an employee of the AlGore concern and is always accompanied by an entourage: Abuse of children and the disabled!
The AlGore concern with its lie-packed film “An Inconvenient Truth” is a kind of Indulgence Enterprise like GreenPeace: Here many people pay money to ease their conscience.
GreenPeace has meanwhile become a Bank – with a large building here in the Port, which occasionally stages dramatic shows for advertising purposes. The AlGore concern disguises that noticeably better.
CLIMATE LIE or CLIMATE ERROR?
In contrast to a – forgivable – error, with a lie a purpose is pursued. Lies are told in order to gain some advantage.
As you maybe see, I have been turning my mind to the subject for a number of years. It annoys me that the climate liars claim that 90% of the scientists are behind them.